Refunds on the Rise: How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Impacts 2026 Returns

As we navigate the early weeks of the 2026 tax season here in East Rutherford and across the nation, the initial data from the IRS tells an interesting story. We are seeing a measurable uptick in the average refund size, currently sitting at $2,476—up about $300 from last year. While this 14.2% increase is a positive shift for cash flow, it hasn't quite hit the aggressive $1,000 increase originally forecasted by some policymakers.

However, it is still early in the filing season. These numbers often fluctuate as more complex returns are processed. What is clear is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is beginning to make its mark on tax outcomes. For our clients, understanding exactly how these provisions work is key to ensuring you aren't leaving money on the table.

Key OBBBA Provisions Driving Refunds

The OBBBA introduced specific deductions and credits designed to lower taxable income. Here is how they break down for the 2026 filing season:

  • The Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: Aimed at the workforce, this allows a deduction for the "half" of "time-and-a-half" pay under the FLSA. It is capped at $12,500 for singles and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: For those in designated service occupations, up to $25,000 of qualified tips can be deducted. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this.

    • Planning Note: High-income earners should be aware of phase-outs. Both the overtime and tips deductions begin to reduce at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and are eliminated entirely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

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  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may deduct up to $10,000 in interest. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be from a friend or relative. This phases out starting at a MAGI of $100,000 ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Enhanced Standard Deductions: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, a new "Senior Bonus" offers an extra $6,000 for taxpayers over 65, subject to income limits starting at $75,000 ($150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. This benefit is available in full to married couples with income up to $400,000 ($200,000 for single/head of household).

  • Increased SALT Limit: This is a major development for our New Jersey clients. The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap has increased from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separate). For high-income earners with a MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to phase back down, potentially reverting to the lower limit.

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Behind the Numbers: Why Refunds Are Higher

Beyond the OBBBA, structural factors are influencing the refunds we are seeing:

  • Withholding Gaps: Several tax cuts were enacted retroactively or mid-year. Because IRS withholding tables weren't instantly updated, many taxpayers had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Brackets and provisions were adjusted for inflation, helping to prevent "bracket creep" where cost-of-living raises inadvertently push taxpayers into higher tax rates.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning it can be paid out even if you have zero tax liability.

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Navigating IRS Challenges

It is important to approach this season with realistic expectations regarding processing times. The IRS is currently operating with a reduced workforce compared to January 2025 and is managing a backlog of returns. We have observed a slight decrease in processing volume (down 3.1%) early in the season.

However, do not let these operational hurdles delay your filing, especially if you are anticipating a refund. At Lizza & Carullo, we are fully up-to-speed on every nuance of the OBBBA. Our advisory-first approach ensures that we aren't just filing forms, but strategically applying these new rules to optimize your financial position.

If you have questions about how these changes affect your specific tax situation or business entity structure, reach out to us. We are here to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.

Gain Year-Round Financial Clarity and Confidence
Partner with Lizza & Carullo CPAs & Advisors for ongoing guidance, proactive tax planning, and strategic financial support. Whether you’re growing a business or navigating personal taxes, our year-round advisory approach helps you stay organized, tax-efficient, and in control — with a team that’s here when you need us, not just at tax time.
Schedule Your Discovery Call
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